Verified record · 47 theses · updated live
Microstructure theses with
a clear record of validation.
Every time an event happens, it is logged right away. We publish base conditions, risk thresholds, and projected models before the outcome, not after. No hidden invalidations or filtered datasets.
Validation Rate
53.2%
47 theses
Validated
25
theses
Best streak
6
validated in a row
Last validated thesis · BTC/USDT
Fired Apr 13
LONG
WAITING
Trigger $71,603.70 Stop $70,590.11 Target $74,644.46
How it works
Three ways we're different.
01
Published before outcome
Every event is logged with activation points, risk thresholds, and projected targets the moment it fires. You get the same information we do, at the same time.
02
Algorithmic, not vibes
Liquidity sweeps, breakout retests, divergences: all quantified from orderbook and price data. No 'gut feel', no paid shills.
03
Everything stays on the record
Invalidations stay up. Deletes aren't allowed. A permanent, paginated ledger of every hypothesis we've ever made.
Under the hood
Adaptive Weight Engine
powered by ML.
Every setup we track is scored by a model that continuously re-weights features based on recent market regime. When funding, volatility, or book imbalance shifts, the weights shift with it.
Orderbook imbalanceFunding regimeVolatility percentileOI deltaLiquidation clustersCross-venue flow
Inputslive feed
Price action32%
Orderbook26%
Funding / OI22%
Volatility20%
Adaptive Weightsre-balancing
ML
ingest
Output#148
Thesis Emitted
Base · Stop · Target
Confidence59%
INGESTCOMPUTEEMIT
Latest theses
Model Validations
XRP/USDT
Liquidity sweep
SHORTModerateCalibratingINVALIDATED
Trigger$1.41
Stop$1.43
Target$1.37
R:R 1:2.5Apr 21
BTC/USDT
Liquidity sweep
SHORTModerateVALIDATED
Trigger$75,625.60
Stop$76,501.60
Target$73,435.60
R:R 1:2.5Apr 21
BNB/USDT
Liquidity sweep
SHORTModerateCalibratingVALIDATED
Trigger$630.64
Stop$635.06
Target$619.58
R:R 1:2.5Apr 21
ETH/USDT
Liquidity sweep
SHORTModerateVALIDATED
Trigger$2,273.81
Stop$2,294.28
Target$2,222.64
R:R 1:2.5Apr 19
Transparency
Accuracy by symbol & setup.
By symbol
BTCUSDT
50%
14 theses
ETHUSDT
57.1%
14 theses
SOLUSDT
52.9%
17 theses
BNBUSDT
100%
1 theses
XRPUSDT
0%
1 theses
By setup type
Breakout Retest
33.3%
6 theses
LiquiditySweep
51.5%
33 theses
Big Move
85.7%
7 theses
Divergence
0%
1 theses
Stream the next thesis in real time.
Real-time data feeds with exact trigger, stop, and target parameters. Free to join.